IS THE RALLY OVER???

The BIG question.

The last rally which started on 10-12-2010 from 19075 to 20666 on 3-1-2011 took 15 days. Now within 4 days after the top of 20666, the entire rally has been retraced by 61.8% (19680), and closed near it. A close below this level would drag the sensex to 19500 level, where it might find a some support.  A close below 19500 breaks the tren-line which got started on 31-08-2010, and is still intact.However a close below this would bring it to a major support band of 18800-19000.

Since the  oscillators are in oversold zone the sensex might make an attempt hold 19500, and retrace a bit.

The scene on the weekly chart is horrific. An engulfing bear pattern is observed on the same. The fall from 21108 to 18954 took just 3 weeks. This entire fall was retraced exactly 80% @ 20666 last week. The time taken for this retracement was 6 weeks. Therefore double the time for 80% result.

Engulfing bear pattern is observed right at the top, the week post "diwali" & also now at this top. The same pattern was observed in Bank Nifty & SBI, the results are there to be seen. The major long -term support on the charts are in the zone 18800-19000. A close below this would make the slide stronger & faster.

Conclusion:  It seems the major tops for the sensex is in place, and we might have to be ready for major correction in the market.